Here is a look at the bellwether counties for the 2020 presidential race. In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. Wilkes-Barres Luzerne County is traditionally Democratic territory in northeastern Pennsylvania but its also an aging, working-class county where Trumps message is resonating. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. Voter Demographics (9). Also key is Larimer (Fort Collins). Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 55%-43%. Trump, however, needs to drive up the score in Collin (Plano). We tried to pick counties that had a large enough population to matter some or if they just had a knack for picking that statewide winner. (It will at least show a trend away from the Republican party that would help make more sense of this situation. That's 14 in a row. GOP Chairman Dale Fellows noted that the population has been steadily aging in recent years. Those places will get the bulk of the presidential candidates time and their surrounding media markets will get the bulk of the television ad spending. Salt Lake City elected its first lesbian mayor this year, and Obama actually won Salt Lake County by a few hundred votes in 2008. Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up Bellwether: Watauga In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. Affluent, well-educated Wake County, home to Raleigh and part of the Research Triangle, was once Republican territory. Just a tiny fraction of them truly matter. It went in a big way for Trump in the primary, but Obama won it, and the margin was similar to his statewide spread. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? I would love to see Clinton or Kaine hold a truckstop rally and appeal to those guys., Latest voter registration totals: 146,952No party registration. But since it's gotten so much attention this cycle with the possibility that independent Evan McMullin siphons off votes from Trump, we kept it in here. Find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. The Art Of The Vote: Who Designs The Ballots We Cast. But those states represent just 29, 18and six electoral votes, respectively. Multiple factors, including higher turnout and population growth, contributed to the fact that both Biden and Trump totaledmore votes than Obama. Follow us on Telegram to be notified when we release the remaining articles. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). As the country's demographics shift and the rural-urban divide becomes more pronounced, the chances appear slim. Ottawa County wasn't the only swing county to get the outcome wrong this time around. It went for Romney 54 to 44 percent, nearly reflecting the overall margin. Have you looked at the results of these counties? Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. Obama won it with 53 percent of the vote while winning statewide by just 75,000 votes in 2012. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. Obama won comfortably here in 2008 but only squeaked to victory four years later. Green Bays Brown County voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, then Barack Obama in 2008, then flipped to Mitt Romney in 2012. President-elect Biden on Electoral College vote: Clear victory. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 480,926Republicans, 323,870Unaffiliated: 229,298Others: 65,281. To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period. Published Nov. 8, 2016 at 5:30 a.m. Texas likely isn't going Democratic, so we aren't including this in one of our 13 counties since it's less likely to decide the outcome of the presidential election. David Niven, a political scientist at the University of Cincinnati, also told the Associated Press that it "speaks to an evolution in American politics" rather than fraud. While Trump won every county in the state in the GOP primary, he posted his best result in Luzerne 77 percent. Iowa (6 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. It gets a lot more interesting. "Biden did well in virtually all of the most populous counties in the U.S., which, along with a larger electorate explains why he defeated Donald Trump by over 7 million votes, despite carrying many fewer counties," Smith wrote. Latest voter registration totals: Unaffiliated: 49,026Democrats: 40,563Republicans: 35,146. Recently, though, social media users have shared a meme with statistics that they claim discredits his victory. For the mathematically-minded: the table below shows that county outcomes do loosely follow a random outcome, up until a point. Ottawa County accurately predicted every president since 1964 until 2020, The Ottawa County commissioner says people are happy with Trump's accomplishments, Sunrise at East Harbor State Park, Ottawa County, Ohio, Minority voters who changed their minds about Trump, Chris Rock jokes about Oscars slap in Netflix show, Harry: I always felt different to rest of family, Everything Everywhere wins big ahead of Oscars, PM to end asylum claims from small boat arrivals, Street fighting in Bakhmut but Russia not in control, US-made cheese can be called 'gruyere' - court. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). After 8 elections, the number of counties left standing defy the odds, and it is this fact that makes them bellwether counties. Her running mate Tim Kaine the former Richmond mayor and Virginia governor could make a difference here, Latest voter registration totals: 230,236No party registration, Loudoun County flipped from red to blue in 2008, when Barack Obama won it and held it in 2012. We organized this by poll-closing time (all in Eastern time for the latest poll-closing times in that state), so you can follow along as the night goes: 1. . The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. Here are the counties that consistently voted more than 50% for the winning party since the 2000 election: To make things a little more interesting we will relax the constraints a little to include modern bellwether counties, that is, counties that have voted for the winning candidate since 1992. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. Valencia County is home to a string of towns along the banks of the Rio Grande river in an otherwise largely arid stretch of desert south of Albuquerque. In 2012, it had nearly half a million more voters in it than every other county in the state combined. Lets find a coin, and flip it. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. a suburban Philadelphia county that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 with 52.6% of the vote, and that . Trump is making a hard play here; His first visit to Iowa after accepting the nomination at the Republican National Convention was in Scott County. To get an idea as to whether Clinton could win it, watch Tarrant County. Home to Tipton (population 3,199), Cedar has gone with the winner of every presidential and Senate race since 1992. Allegheny (Pittsburgh) is also key for Democrats. His win in 2012 was by a smaller margin in Forsyth County than in 2008, as the state flipped back to Mitt Romney. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in . Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. But it's also not unprecedented. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention)2012: Obama 51%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 128,938Republicans: 111,374Democrats: 109,140Libertarian: 3,388. This is a fairly small county, but we couldn't resist the toll of this bellwether. We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. . Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud. It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelors degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide. "End of day, the solution is complicated but the problem is very simple," wrote a user who shared the meme on Instagram. The county also features a diverse array of industries, from dairy farms and small manufacturers to major health-care companies. Latest voter registration totals: 937,155 No party registration. If Clinton can carry Henrico, it will help offset nearby Chesterfield County, the slightly larger and more Republican-oriented Richmond suburb. It's another one of those white, college-educated areas that could prove key to this election. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 51%-49% - 2008: Obama 50%-49%. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. And like so many electoral trends, demographics play a major role in explaining why these once-bellwether counties finally missed the mark in 2020. But its not just demographic trends driving the loss of bellwether status. But its also home to the largest concentration of registered Republicans in the state. What, if anything, did we miss? Key bellwether counties in the swingiest states appeared during the 2016 and 2018 cycles that can help serve as a guide for 2020. Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. Somehow we jumped from 22 to 1 county in one election cycle and we are supposed to believe that is normal? Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. These key counties tell the story of America's shifting political landscape. In other words, how strongly do they swing to the winning party? Click here, for more. George W. Bush twice won comfortably in Forsyth County, the home of Winston-Salem. 'Forest defenders' begin week of action to block Atlanta police training center, Frogxit: Harry and Meghan get what they asked for, More Iranian schoolgirls fall ill, protests erupt, Russell Brand was challenged to give examples of MSNBC pushing misinformation (that was a BAD idea), Secretary of the Army Guarantees a Lot of Young Soldiers Will Die but Has the Right Thoughts and Feelings, California - Do Not Sell My Personal Information. In fact, a national coalition of election security officials described the general election as "the most secure in American history," per USA TODAY. In fact, according to David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, compared to 1,096 counties that fit that description in 1992. Watauga has gone for the winner statewide in each of the last three presidential elections and three Senate races since 2008. a county which has voted Republican in 2004, but swung to the Democrat party in 2008 and then back to the Republican party in 2016. 9. He would have to really drive up big margins in the less populous counties in the mountainous Western part of the state, as well as Chesterfield (south of Richmond) and Virginia Beach. Potential canaries in the coal mine, aside from Montgomery, include Wood, south of Toledo, and Stark, home to Canton and the pro-football Hall of Fame in northeastern Ohio. "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". But it's still indicative of widespread support. If it's close here, Georgia could be in play. The divisions were everywhere. This county voted with the popular vote each time. [How Much Did COVID-19 Affect The 2020 Election?]. The pattern has become clear between the last two presidential elections and governor's race early results from rural counties show Republicans up, but Northern Virginia counties, especially Fairfax, have more than made up the difference. Really stop reading. The fact that there are fewer swing counties means that there are fewer potential bellwether counties. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. We sorted the counties from highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (in the 2008 election). Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. Trump won Luzerne County by nearly 20 points in 2016, outperforming Romney . The second-most populous county in the state, northern Nevadas Washoe County is home to Reno. Help raise awareness within your community about the lingering, unresolved issues with election integrity. This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. The fact that there were 19 demonstrates the incredible predictive abilities of these counties.). (The highest value being 60.6%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 4 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election.
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